Mike Malloy

[Tom]

'DROPPING LIKE FLIES'?....


Sen. Byron Dorgan (D-N.D.) is retiring. So is Sen. Chris Dodd (D-Conn.). And before anyone could catch their breath, Colorado Gov. Bill Ritter (D) announced he's not seeking re-election, either.

It led ABC News to report that "Democrats are dropping like flies."

It is not shaping up to be a pretty week for the Democrats. [...]

You will certainly hear a lot of talk from Republicans that Democrats are beginning to face the reality of just how tough the current political landscape looks for them and they are running for the hills.



This is, to be sure, exactly the meme Republicans want the media to embrace, and if the coverage this morning is any indication, political journalists seem anxious to comply.

But let's add a little perspective here. Quick quiz: which party has more Senate retirements so far this campaign cycle, Democrats or Republicans? Follow-up question: which party has more House retirements so far this campaign cycle, Democrats or Republicans?

If Dems are "dropping like flies," the answer should be obvious. But it's not -- in both chambers, Republican retirements, at least for now, outnumber Democratic retirements.

In the House, 14 GOP incumbents have decided not to seek re-election, while 10 Democratic incumbents have made the same announcement. Does this mean Republicans are "dropping like flies"?

In the Senate, six Republican incumbents have decided not to seek re-election, while two Democratic incumbents have made the same announcement. Is this evidence of a mass Democratic exodus?

Among governors, several incumbents in both parties are term-limited and prevented from running again, but only three Democrats who can seek re-election -- Parkinson in Kansas, Doyle in Wisconsin, and Ritter in Colorado -- have chosen not to. For Republicans, the number is four -- Douglas in Vermont, Rell in Connecticut, Crist in Florida, and Pawlenty in Minnesota. (Update: the GOP number is five if we include Palin in Alaska.)

So, to review, Republican retirements outnumber Democratic retirements in the House, in the Senate, and among governors. The preferred Republican/media meme of the day doesn't match up well against reality.

http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/2010_01/021783.php
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Conservatism is a pale horse, and the riders should be called DEATH.

[DavidNM]

Not to mention the fact that the Chris Dodd seat was a potential loss until he pulled out and Blumenthal jumped in. Now it's a seat that will most likely stay Democratic.

[greg]

I'm seeing some possible good news in my Congressional District. The Dem challenger is leading in fundraising and only has a 4-5 percentage point gap to close. And Obama won the district (narrowly) that has generally leaned (R). So hopefully, another D pickup, and tossing out a carpet-bagger who is a complete moron IMHO. I would post the thread from blog link, but it would be boring reading--as I was.

But another quick thought. I still have this concern in the back of my mind that Dem's are going to have troubles in Nov--although some guest on MSNBC implied the other day that it may not be that big a hit. I'm concerned about people who are out of work, and those who have still NOT received help with foreclosures. These people may be a tad PO'd. But thats a guess.
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Terrorism is Viagra for Republicans: The more fear - the more excited they get.

[DavidNM]

Yea - i have two main fears for these upcoming mid-terms.

The first is that I think the economy is going to appear to turn south - due to several reasons:

1. The commercial sector is going to start really hurting due to a lack of capital and bank foreclosures. There's a lot of businesses that are 3 to 7 years old that started up with short term loans. The banks are going to start calling those loans.

2. The residential foreclosure programs are not working and this new "just walk away" phenomenon we start to become very popular. John and Suzie Smith, who are 200K underwater on their home, are going to start realizing that they have just as much moral obligation to pay their mortgage as Wells Fargo and B of A have shown with their commercial investments - zero!

3. Economies don't move in a straight line (either up or down) but in a zig zag line. Even if things overall are getting better, a zig in the progress will freak out voters. It only depends when it happens.

My second fear is the effect that the media is going to have. They appear to be as worked up as I've ever seen them - waiting for one disaster after another. They're going to plaster every negative "the sky is falling" story they can all over the news. They are going to feed the right wing hate and scare machine - just as long as it brings in viewers. As an example look at the stories about the "Dems dropping like flies" re the retirements from congress. Facts are that by numbers and percentages a lot more retugs are retiring in both the house and the senate.

[greg]

Well, A message has been sent. I just hope the receiver got it and will "correct course" as necessary. We may be down a bit, but not out. Fix the problems before Nov. and we should be okay (fingers crossed).
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Terrorism is Viagra for Republicans: The more fear - the more excited they get.