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Vote Swing vs.Exit Poll Red-Shift: Kills the No-fraud canard

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PostPosted: Fri Nov 04, 2011 12:42 am    Post subject: Vote Swing vs.Exit Poll Red-Shift: Kills the No-fraud canard Reply with quote

Swing vs. Red-Shift: Killing the “Zero slope, no election fraud” Canard

Richard Charnin (TruthIsAll)
Nov. 2, 2011


After the 2004 election, exit pollsters and naysayers claimed that the near-zero correlation between Swing (change in vote share from 2000 to 2004) and Red shift (the 2004 exit poll discrepancy) “kills the fraud argument”. They provided a swing vs. red-shift scatterchart of 1250 precincts and pointed to the flat regression-line as evidence:

But there was a problem with the data. It reflected the recorded vote – not the True Vote (based on votes cast). The pollsters used bogus recorded vote data to prove that there was no fraud – a circular argument if there ever was one. The implicit assumption was that the recorded vote reflected the True Vote, yet there were nearly six million uncounted votes in 2000 and four million in 2004. That fact alone is proof that there is always a discrepancy between the True and recorded vote.

On the other hand, when unadjusted state exit polls are used as a proxy for the True Vote, there is a strong positive correlation. To use the recorded vote as the basis for claiming the 2004 election was fraud-free is an example of the disinformation campaign to cast doubt on the state and national exit polls which indicated that Kerry won by 52-47%.

The 1992-2004 Swing Redshift graph displays True and Recorded Vote Swing and Red shift (based on 238 state exit polls) for the 1992-2004 elections.

The 0.39 True Vote Swing/Red shift correlation is significantly higher than the near-zero 0.05 Recorded correlation. The flat regression is partly due to 40 million uncounted votes in the 1988-2004 elections. But there were also millions of votes switched in cyberspace.

Recorded vote share = True Vote + Uncounted + Switched

The exit pollster’s initial explanation for the discrepancies was that non-response bias skewed the exit polls – the so-called reluctant Bush responder (rBr). Then came Swing vs. Red shift. Finally, False Recall was promoted to explain the impossible number of returning Bush voters implied by the Final National Exit Poll; once again, the recorded vote was used as the baseline, rather than total votes cast (i.e. uncounted votes and the True Vote were ignored).

To use a fraudulent recorded vote as the basis for calculating swing and then claim that the near-zero correlation “kills the fraud argument” is a logical fallacy. Elections can be fraudulent or fraud-free regardless of the correlation. In 2000, the exit poll discrepancy (2.0 WPD) was much lower than in 2004 (7.4WPD), yet the correlation ratios were significantly higher in 2000. The scatter graphs below kill the naysayer 2004 Swing/ Red shift “no slope, no fraud” canard.

The fallacy of the argument is confirmed in each of the 1992, 1996 and 2000 elections. The True Vote Swing/ Red shift correlation is much stronger than the corresponding Recorded Vote correlation (the regression line slope is much steeper). The average absolute True Vote correlation was .33 higher than the Recorded Vote.

The recorded state vote swing/red shift regression lines were flat in both 2004 (high WPD) and in 1996 (low WPD). On the contrary, in 2000 low WPD) the regression line was steep – refuting the premise.

The following graphs display the State Recorded and True Vote share Swing vs. the unadjusted Exit Poll Red shift (i.e. WPD).

In 2004, the average Battleground state recorded vote correlation was 0.45; it was near zero in both Democratic and Republican states. But the exit poll discrepancies (WPD) in Democratic states were higher than in Battleground states- another refutation of the premise.


1) In 2004, True Vote Swing/ Red shift correlation was 0.56. Recorded Vote correlation was 0.11. There were close to 4 million uncounted votes.
2) In 2000 the exit poll discrepancies (2.0 WPD) were much lower than in 2004 (7.4 WPD). But the 2000 Recorded vote correlation was 0.38; it was 0.11 in 2004. Nearly 6 million votes were uncounted.
3) In 1996, the WPD was a low 1.9 with a 0.02 Recorded Vote and 0.41 True Vote correlations. There were nearly 10 million uncounted votes.
4) In 1992, the WPD was a high 5.4 with a 0.21 Recorded Vote and 0.40 True Vote correlations. There were nearly 10 million uncounted votes.

In every election, the Democrats do better in the exit poll than the recorded vote. In each election for which prior election unadjusted state exit poll (WPD) data is available (1992 to 2004), correlations based on exit poll swing were significantly stronger than the corresponding recorded swing correlations. One reason is that (mostly Democratic) uncounted votes are not included in the recorded vote but are counted in the unadjusted exit polls.

The Census indicates there were nearly six million uncounted votes in 2000 and 4 million in 2004. Obviously, the recorded vote did not equal the True Vote in either election. It never does. The unadjusted 2004 aggregate state exit poll determined that Kerry was a 52-47% winner, but Bush won the recorded vote by 50.7-48.3%. The aggregate 7.4% WPD is the difference in margin. In 2000, the WPD indicated that Gore’s exit poll margin was 2% higher than his recorded 0.5% margin.

Unfortunately, the National Election Pool consortium has never released unadjusted precinct exit poll data. The transparent claim is the need for exit poll respondent confidentiality. Of course, they could release the data without providing personal information if they wanted to. In their 2004 report, the pollsters did provide average state exit poll WPD data for all elections since 1988. That report provided more than enough historical information to hoist the NEP, the pollsters and the naysayers on their own petard.
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